I'm making this call based somewhat off comments on Idol-watching blogs and somewhat off the American political scene today. And a bit based off American Idol's own trends.
American Idol's past three winners have been different versions of the same basic type: the safe white male (by safe I mean unthreatening to middle class, white America). First we have
David Cook, who I liked. In the finals he was up against an extremely tweeny, made-for-Disney little LDS boy,
David Archuleta. Next season, I believe, was the breaking point. It was spring of 2009 and Obama was new in office and conservatives were beginning to freak out over "losing our country." In AI world,
Kris Allen defeated
Adam Lambert in the finals. Lambert is my mother's favorite Idol contestant of all time. He's also openly gay. One might even say "flamboyant." Kris Allen wasn't a bad singer, but he was very boring, and he was very safe - especially contrasted to Adam Lambert (who got the Teen Choice Award over Allen). Churches in the South, where Allen is from, got mobilized to vote Allen in over Lambert, and were at least
somewhat supported by AT&T. Season 9's winner,
Lee DeWyze, is in my opinion the worst winner - or finalist - Idol's ever had. He was up against a white mother who sang pretty good folk music and wore dreadlocks,
Crystal Bowersox. But I predicted, correctly, that DeWyze would win - because the judges were pumping him up as a "steadily improving" diamond in the rough, and thus an "underdog," and because he was totally, totally, safe.
I would also say that from Cook to Allen to DeWyze there has been a slide toward country music. Further, AI has always had a voting bloc dominated by women who don't like other women, meaning female contestants drop like flies unless they have very solid fanbases. In general, a bad male singer will last longer than a bad female singer on AI, and will often last longer than a good female singer as well. All this is especially interesting given that Seasons 1-6 were won by two black girls, two white girls, one black guy, and one gray-haired white guy. So basically after six seasons of various kinds of diversity, we suddenly had three seasons of white male winners. I hope it doesn't coincide with the racial hysteria gripping the country, but I'm pretty sure it does.
So here we are in Season 10. These trends are coming to a head. We've got a boatload of talented singers who are all, in some way, threatening to middle class, white America.
Among the men: scruffy
Casey Abrams, who's white but sings like Screamin' Jay Hawkins, Hot Topic-inspired
James Durbin, who has Tourette's and Asperger's and wears a tail, weird ass
Paul McDonald, who's Thom Yorke on antidepressants, ballad-singer
Stefano Langone, who's Italian, and
Jacob Lusk, who's the most frightening of all. He's black. He comes from gospel, and sings like it. He's emotional. And the judges really, really,
really like him. There's been incredible blowback against Lusk from women on the internet named "Barbara" and the like, who think he can't sing, think he's over the top, can't handle his gestures or movements or facial expressions, and are basically just terrified -
terrified! - of gospel. My mother thinks he's the next Adam Lambert, and is in love. I also like Lusk a great deal.
Among the women: ballad-singer
Pia Toscano, who looks like a lost Kardashian sister but sings like Celine Dion, country Christian blonde
Lauren Alaina, who isn't really all that country and is not near as glam (nor, I predict, as presentable) as Carrie Underwood, lounge singer
Haley Reinhart, who's white but sings funk and Motown and is probably going home tonight, sweet little boring Asian girl
Thia Megia, who is probably going home next week, and
Naima Adedapo, who actually broke out the African dance routine last night. Yeah, good luck to you, Naima. The public has already succeeded in knocking off "baby Diana Ross"
Ashthon Jones and "baby Selena"
Karen Rodriguez, who actually said things like "America needs a Latina idol" and sung songs partly in Spanish. Yeah. Bad move, Karen.
My mother and I have been watching since Season 1 and my mother thinks it's the most talented group they've ever had - I would certainly say it's the most interesting. But there's not a lot of options here for the conservative AI fanbase to get behind. Pia and Lauren will be the last two girls standing, and some say Pia will win because she's such a classic Idol type, but I doubt it. The guys' field is more open, but there's a real lack of a Safe White Male in that bunch.
BUT WAIT. I'M MISSING SOMEBODY. I'M MISSING THE ONLY OPTION... THE ANSWER TO ALL OUR PRAYERS... YOUR NEXT AMERICAN IDOL...
SCOTTY MCCREERY.
Scotty McCreery sings country. That's all that Scotty sings - it was Motown night last night and he turned a Motown song into a country song, because damn if he's gonna sing Motown, y'all. Whereas all those other weird/multi-ethnic contestants all claimed to grow up listening to Motown, Scotty had
never even heard it! Now the fact that he sticks to his genre is totally A-OK, even though Jacob is totally not allowed to stick to gospel. Now, he is more country than AI usually goes. AI has never gone for someone
this country. Carrie Underwood could and would sing mainstream pop songs when she was on AI, and Scotty, I predict, will not. But part of Scotty's appeal is his extreme country-ness, this "back to
your America" Americana that he presents. He plays on a baseball team. He looks like a cross between Alfred E. Neuman and George W. Bush. He's young: 17. He comes across as a nice guy. He's utterly lacking in any kind of "crazy." Lots of girls scream when he comes on the stage. And he's Christian, wears a big cross. In the words of one CNN iReport writer, he "can do no wrong," despite an unimpressive voice and an extremely narrow range.
The AI public's going to be faced with an exaggerated version of the same choice they've had to make in the past couple seasons: safety versus talent (exaggerated because Scotty is so white that he's almost a parody of white America, and because he is surrounded by so many singers of superior talent). I think they're going to go for what's safe. They need something to cling to, after all, what with all the illegals trying to take their jobs and the Muslims trying to blow them up and the blacks trying to take their promotions and the black socialist Muslim Kenyan president in office.
So there you have it: you heard it here first (maybe). Scotty McCreery, American Idol 2011.